Setting description

Equal randomization: several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures (cfr scen 7)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 15 8 3
TP53- 204 4 3
TP53+ 0 54 17
DRD+ 9 4 302
TEfus+ 1 242 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.030 0.016 0.006
TP53- 0.408 0.008 0.006
TP53+ 0.000 0.108 0.034
DRD+ 0.018 0.008 0.604
TEfus+ 0.002 0.484 0.000
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 5 5 5
TP53- 13 158 124
TP53+ 362 28 35
DRD+ 68 64 0
TEfus+ 176 3 107
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.010 0.010 0.010
TP53- 0.026 0.316 0.248
TP53+ 0.724 0.056 0.070
DRD+ 0.136 0.128 0.000
TEfus+ 0.352 0.006 0.214
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 67 62 79
TP53+ 2 17 18
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.134 0.124 0.158
TP53+ 0.004 0.034 0.036
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.09.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.016             0.058             0.016

The overall power was 0.878.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.408             0.484             0.604

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 15 8 3
futility 0 5 5 5
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 539 (474, 594) 338 (188, 468) 412 (265, 538) 441 (276, 541)
n_unique 539 (474, 594) 338 (188, 468) 412 (265, 538) 441 (276, 541)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 14 (9, 26) 15 (8, 31) 16 (10, 18)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.95 (0.52, 1) 0.39 (0.05, 0.81) 0.13 (0.01, 0.53)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.021) 0.017 (0.014, 0.019) 0.02 (0.018, 0.022) 0.021 (0.02, 0.024)
TP53- graduation 0 204 4 3
futility 0 13 158 124
max_n 0 67 62 79
n 290 (249, 328) 223 (87, 301) 236 (71, 300) 240 (68, 302)
n_unique 290 (249, 328) 223 (87, 301) 236 (71, 300) 240 (68, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (17, 60) 60 (17, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (16, 55) 22 (12, 41) 18 (13, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.95, 1) 0.07 (0, 0.39) 0.06 (0, 0.32)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 0 54 17
futility 0 362 28 35
max_n 0 2 17 18
n 249 (206, 287) 103 (53, 216) 209 (81, 267) 216 (118, 269)
n_unique 249 (206, 287) 103 (53, 216) 209 (81, 267) 216 (118, 269)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 34 (17, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (49, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 25 (16, 46) 24 (16, 50) 21 (14, 34)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.07 (0, 0.4) 0.89 (0.46, 0.99) 0.59 (0.16, 0.92)
rate 0.022 (0.019, 0.024) 0.028 (0.024, 0.034) 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
DRD+ graduation 0 9 4 302
futility 0 68 64 0
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 148 (119, 175) 91 (50, 133) 111 (57, 156) 91 (53, 152)
n_unique 148 (119, 175) 91 (50, 133) 111 (57, 156) 91 (53, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (35, 60) 60 (40, 60) 53 (29, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (23, 51) 30 (22, 46) 41 (26, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.71 (0.21, 0.96) 0.51 (0.11, 0.91) 1 (0.95, 1)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.021) 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.018 (0.015, 0.022) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 1 242 0
futility 0 176 3 107
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 203 (164, 234) 104 (51, 176) 136 (64, 207) 159 (59, 215)
n_unique 203 (164, 234) 104 (51, 176) 136 (64, 207) 159 (59, 215)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (24, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (18, 53) 37 (24, 55) 25 (18, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.03, 0.8) 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.11 (0.01, 0.52)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.019) 0.018 (0.015, 0.023) 0.01 (0.009, 0.013) 0.02 (0.017, 0.024)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 226 171 132
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 67 62 79
n 156 (127, 190) 130 (46, 171) 134 (39, 171) 139 (37, 178)
n_unique 156 (127, 190) 130 (46, 171) 134 (39, 171) 139 (37, 178)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.92, 1) 0.02 (0, 0.23) 0.02 (0, 0.19)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.027 (0.023, 0.032) 0.027 (0.023, 0.031)
–+ graduation 0 361 337 193
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 64 57 78
n 49 (33, 63) 29 (11, 53) 29 (11, 52) 40 (11, 61)
n_unique 49 (33, 63) 29 (11, 53) 29 (11, 52) 40 (11, 61)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.72 (0.31, 0.94) 0.78 (0.39, 0.97) 0.02 (0, 0.18)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.012 (0.007, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.027 (0.02, 0.037)
-+- graduation 0 378 91 56
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 2 17 18
n 101 (82, 127) 46 (22, 95) 95 (39, 119) 96 (51, 118)
n_unique 101 (82, 127) 46 (22, 95) 95 (39, 119) 96 (51, 118)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.39 (0.08, 0.79) 0.35 (0.06, 0.8) 0.39 (0.06, 0.8)
rate 0.025 (0.021, 0.029) 0.028 (0.023, 0.035) 0.027 (0.023, 0.033) 0.027 (0.022, 0.032)
-++ graduation 0 426 294 143
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 2 16 18
n 81 (57, 102) 28 (15, 69) 61 (22, 89) 73 (21, 100)
n_unique 81 (57, 102) 28 (15, 69) 61 (22, 89) 73 (21, 100)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.09 (0, 0.41) 0.98 (0.81, 1) 0.07 (0, 0.38)
rate 0.019 (0.015, 0.023) 0.029 (0.022, 0.038) 0.011 (0.007, 0.015) 0.027 (0.021, 0.034)
+– graduation 0 285 210 345
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 62 67
n 42 (30, 55) 32 (11, 49) 34 (10, 51) 26 (10, 46)
n_unique 42 (30, 55) 32 (11, 49) 34 (10, 51) 26 (10, 46)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.56, 0.99) 0.09 (0.01, 0.42) 0.92 (0.67, 0.99)
rate 0.018 (0.014, 0.025) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.027 (0.02, 0.038) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
+-+ graduation 0 384 370 385
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 62 57 66
n 41 (25, 55) 24 (9, 49) 24 (9, 47) 22 (9, 45)
n_unique 41 (25, 55) 24 (9, 49) 24 (9, 47) 22 (9, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.63 (0.23, 0.91) 0.67 (0.27, 0.93) 0.69 (0.35, 0.93)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.019) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
++- graduation 0 396 149 325
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 2 17 15
n 33 (23, 43) 13 (6, 32) 30 (9, 42) 24 (10, 37)
n_unique 33 (23, 43) 13 (6, 32) 30 (9, 42) 24 (10, 37)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.07, 0.77) 0.36 (0.07, 0.78) 0.98 (0.84, 1)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.033) 0.029 (0.019, 0.044) 0.027 (0.019, 0.037) 0.01 (0.005, 0.015)
+++ graduation 0 436 342 386
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 2 16 15
n 31 (17, 45) 12 (6, 32) 22 (9, 40) 20 (8, 39)
n_unique 31 (17, 45) 12 (6, 32) 22 (9, 40) 20 (8, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.17 (0.02, 0.52) 0.89 (0.53, 0.99) 0.88 (0.53, 0.99)
rate 0.019 (0.013, 0.026) 0.028 (0.019, 0.045) 0.01 (0.005, 0.016) 0.01 (0.006, 0.018)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 15 8 3
time_stop 13 (9, 25) 22 (11, 30) 13 (11, 17)
n_trt 100 (69, 200) 150 (71, 228) 106 (77, 123)
n_control 87 (72, 181) 181 (82, 256) 103 (89, 141)
post_p 0.98 (0.91, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.96 (0.95, 0.97)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 1.5 (1, 3.3) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 204 4 3
time_stop 38 (17, 55) 25 (13, 42) 17 (15, 22)
n_trt 164 (63, 257) 106 (60, 173) 69 (61, 101)
n_control 168 (71, 273) 116 (55, 182) 73 (67, 100)
post_p 1 (0.95, 1) 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) 0.98 (0.95, 0.98)
order 1 (1, 3) 1.5 (1, 3.4) 1 (1, 2.6)
TP53+ count 54 17
time_stop 32 (18, 52) 23 (15, 46)
n_trt 100 (61, 191) 71 (54, 179)
n_control 113 (56, 210) 75 (47, 150)
post_p 0.97 (0.92, 1) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 2.7) 1 (1, 2)
DRD+ count 9 4 302
time_stop 49 (26, 59) 46 (30, 56) 41 (26, 56)
n_trt 63 (51, 121) 68 (55, 124) 82 (52, 138)
n_control 125 (62, 176) 114 (66, 155) 101 (59, 148)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 0.99) 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 3 (1.8, 4) 1.5 (1, 2.7) 2 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 1 242
time_stop 21 (21, 21) 37 (24, 55)
n_trt 55 (55, 55) 108 (59, 187)
n_control 63 (63, 63) 125 (66, 194)
post_p 0.95 (0.95, 0.95) 0.99 (0.94, 1)
order 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 3)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 5 5 5
time_stop 18 (11, 29) 13 (9, 35) 16 (12, 18)
n_trt 122 (78, 180) 93 (69, 174) 117 (92, 126)
n_control 125 (76, 242) 96 (68, 289) 113 (92, 146)
post_p 0.09 (0.04, 0.17) 0.05 (0.02, 0.11) 0.02 (0, 0.1)
order 3 (1.4, 3.6) 1 (1, 2.8) 2 (1, 4)
TP53- count 13 158 124
time_stop 15 (11, 29) 22 (13, 40) 18 (13, 37)
n_trt 58 (52, 93) 94 (55, 174) 79 (52, 150)
n_control 69 (42, 135) 92 (52, 183) 81 (49, 162)
post_p 0.18 (0.11, 0.26) 0.08 (0.01, 0.26) 0.1 (0.02, 0.22)
order 1 (1, 2.8) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 362 28 35
time_stop 25 (16, 46) 18 (15, 33) 19 (14, 30)
n_trt 82 (53, 164) 64 (52, 125) 71 (52, 96)
n_control 86 (52, 183) 64 (50, 133) 68 (46, 107)
post_p 0.12 (0.02, 0.24) 0.15 (0.11, 0.23) 0.1 (0.02, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 68 64
time_stop 28 (23, 44) 30 (22, 46)
n_trt 58 (50, 86) 62 (50, 103)
n_control 66 (48, 106) 68 (43, 117)
post_p 0.14 (0.04, 0.25) 0.12 (0.03, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 176 3 107
time_stop 28 (18, 53) 22 (19, 44) 25 (18, 38)
n_trt 75 (51, 131) 65 (59, 88) 65 (51, 116)
n_control 86 (50, 168) 58 (52, 128) 73 (48, 130)
post_p 0.09 (0.02, 0.23) 0.08 (0.07, 0.14) 0.1 (0.01, 0.24)
order 2 (1, 4) 3 (2.2, 5.4) 2 (1, 4)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
time 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25) 13 (9, 25)
n 30 (18, 70) 10 (6, 18) 17 (14, 33) 14 (9, 20) 8 (4, 18) 8 (4, 13) 6 (2, 12) 5 (3, 11)
post_p 0.79 (0.65, 0.94) 0.63 (0.56, 0.76) 0.74 (0.64, 0.85) 0.6 (0.56, 0.81) 0.64 (0.58, 0.72) 0.62 (0.57, 0.76) 0.67 (0.56, 0.77) 0.61 (0.55, 0.67)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.004 (0, 0.008) 0 (0, 0.004) 0 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.017) 0 (0, 0.011) 0 (0, 0.012) 0 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.008)
Taxel_therapies count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
time 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30) 22 (11, 30)
n 44 (25, 72) 12 (5, 25) 30 (10, 41) 17 (8, 29) 10 (6, 26) 12 (10, 21) 8 (4, 13) 6 (5, 15)
post_p 0.62 (0.57, 0.77) 0.64 (0.59, 0.76) 0.64 (0.59, 0.8) 0.89 (0.64, 0.99) 0.66 (0.57, 0.75) 0.65 (0.58, 0.88) 0.68 (0.56, 0.72) 0.66 (0.56, 0.81)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.003, 0.021) 0.002 (0, 0.007) 0.014 (0, 0.021) 0.003 (0, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0 (0, 0.006) 0.01 (0, 0.016) 0 (0, 0.009)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17) 13 (11, 17)
n 32 (22, 34) 8 (5, 12) 20 (11, 26) 14 (10, 20) 7 (7, 9) 8 (7, 8) 7 (6, 13) 5 (4, 9)
post_p 0.79 (0.78, 0.8) 0.56 (0.55, 0.6) 0.69 (0.63, 0.71) 0.58 (0.57, 0.59) 0.61 (0.6, 0.74) 0.58 (0.58, 0.74) 0.71 (0.64, 0.71) 0.61 (0.57, 0.7)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0 (0, 0.008) 0 (0, 0.01) 0 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.008) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 204 204 204 204
time 38 (17, 55) 38 (17, 55) 38 (17, 55) 38 (17, 55)
n 89 (37, 137) 24 (10, 46) 22 (9, 38) 22 (9, 43)
post_p 0.96 (0.78, 1) 0.76 (0.7, 0.92) 0.78 (0.7, 0.95) 0.74 (0.64, 0.89)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.011)
Taxel_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 25 (13, 42) 25 (13, 42) 25 (13, 42) 25 (13, 42)
n 60 (34, 90) 13 (8, 24) 16 (6, 31) 16 (12, 28)
post_p 0.76 (0.72, 0.79) 0.73 (0.66, 0.8) 0.77 (0.65, 0.84) 0.78 (0.72, 0.82)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.004, 0.019) 0.004 (0, 0.01) 0.003 (0, 0.012) 0.002 (0, 0.006)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3
time 17 (15, 22) 17 (15, 22) 17 (15, 22) 17 (15, 22)
n 37 (34, 60) 9 (8, 13) 11 (11, 15) 7 (6, 17)
post_p 0.86 (0.75, 0.94) 0.82 (0.7, 0.83) 0.8 (0.72, 0.89) 0.62 (0.61, 0.78)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.004 (0.001, 0.011) 0 (0, 0) 0.01 (0.002, 0.01) 0 (0, 0)
TP53+ Taxel_therapies count 54 54 54 54
time 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52)
n 43 (23, 81) 30 (16, 65) 12 (5, 27) 13 (7, 26)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.89) 0.85 (0.74, 0.99) 0.73 (0.64, 0.82) 0.76 (0.66, 0.93)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.01, 0.025) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.013 (0, 0.021) 0.006 (0, 0.011)
Niraparib count 17 17 17 17
time 23 (15, 46) 23 (15, 46) 23 (15, 46) 23 (15, 46)
n 28 (21, 72) 25 (16, 44) 11 (6, 26) 10 (8, 16)
post_p 0.79 (0.73, 0.86) 0.76 (0.72, 0.9) 0.73 (0.64, 0.97) 0.74 (0.64, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.012 (0.006, 0.022) 0.009 (0.005, 0.018) 0 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0.01)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 9 9 9 9
time 49 (26, 59) 49 (26, 59) 49 (26, 59) 49 (26, 59)
n 25 (16, 50) 20 (11, 48) 13 (8, 27) 9 (4, 23)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.95) 0.77 (0.72, 0.86) 0.73 (0.69, 0.85) 0.71 (0.65, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.002, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.012) 0.023 (0.01, 0.025) 0.016 (0.009, 0.019)
Taxel_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 46 (30, 56) 46 (30, 56) 46 (30, 56) 46 (30, 56)
n 20 (11, 30) 22 (14, 39) 18 (9, 29) 14 (12, 29)
post_p 0.8 (0.66, 0.88) 0.75 (0.73, 0.88) 0.82 (0.75, 0.86) 0.81 (0.72, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.005, 0.02) 0.008 (0.005, 0.008) 0.015 (0.004, 0.018) 0.006 (0.001, 0.009)
Niraparib count 302 302 302 302
time 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56)
n 24 (11, 41) 22 (10, 42) 20 (10, 31) 19 (9, 33)
post_p 0.83 (0.71, 0.97) 0.75 (0.7, 0.9) 0.89 (0.72, 0.99) 0.8 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 21 (21, 21) 21 (21, 21) 21 (21, 21) 21 (21, 21)
n 18 (18, 18) 22 (22, 22) 5 (5, 5) 10 (10, 10)
post_p 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.85 (0.85, 0.85) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.62 (0.62, 0.62)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0 (0, 0) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008)
Taxel_therapies count 242 242 242 242
time 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55)
n 24 (11, 45) 42 (22, 73) 22 (9, 41) 19 (9, 35)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.93) 0.91 (0.74, 1) 0.74 (0.67, 0.9) 0.79 (0.7, 0.96)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.009 (0.004, 0.014) 0.006 (0, 0.011) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29) 18 (11, 29)
n 34 (23, 61) 9 (7, 14) 27 (10, 39) 21 (10, 24) 8 (6, 14) 7 (6, 14) 10 (6, 11) 8 (5, 11)
post_p 0.32 (0.25, 0.48) 0.39 (0.21, 0.47) 0.31 (0.26, 0.41) 0.22 (0.16, 0.38) 0.44 (0.3, 0.47) 0.36 (0.31, 0.46) 0.39 (0.29, 0.45) 0.37 (0.24, 0.41)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.03) 0.032 (0.023, 0.034) 0.03 (0.02, 0.047) 0.012 (0, 0.022) 0.013 (0.008, 0.021) 0.025 (0.007, 0.028) 0.013 (0.005, 0.025)
Taxel_therapies count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35) 13 (9, 35)
n 29 (19, 33) 7 (2, 10) 17 (14, 49) 11 (9, 34) 9 (7, 12) 7 (5, 9) 4 (3, 13) 8 (3, 20)
post_p 0.22 (0.06, 0.35) 0.44 (0.36, 0.47) 0.42 (0.28, 0.43) 0.33 (0.23, 0.46) 0.27 (0.25, 0.45) 0.28 (0.26, 0.43) 0.43 (0.28, 0.48) 0.4 (0.37, 0.45)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.012, 0.032) 0.015 (0, 0.021) 0.022 (0.019, 0.031) 0.017 (0.005, 0.023) 0.028 (0.01, 0.044) 0.015 (0, 0.028) 0 (0, 0.035) 0 (0, 0.019)
Niraparib count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18) 16 (12, 18)
n 37 (21, 37) 11 (7, 13) 24 (20, 27) 14 (9, 20) 9 (6, 11) 12 (6, 14) 7 (2, 9) 6 (5, 9)
post_p 0.42 (0.2, 0.5) 0.17 (0.06, 0.3) 0.26 (0.24, 0.27) 0.24 (0.11, 0.4) 0.46 (0.41, 0.5) 0.44 (0.3, 0.49) 0.36 (0.31, 0.48) 0.38 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.036) 0.039 (0.02, 0.065) 0.029 (0.025, 0.032) 0.032 (0.014, 0.041) 0.011 (0, 0.022) 0.018 (0.011, 0.065) 0.022 (0.004, 0.059) 0.019 (0.007, 0.046)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 13 13 13 13
time 15 (11, 29) 15 (11, 29) 15 (11, 29) 15 (11, 29)
n 34 (29, 61) 9 (6, 18) 10 (6, 15) 7 (5, 11)
post_p 0.42 (0.29, 0.48) 0.32 (0.23, 0.4) 0.38 (0.21, 0.46) 0.42 (0.32, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.017 (0.012, 0.03) 0.019 (0.013, 0.03) 0.016 (0, 0.022)
Taxel_therapies count 158 158 158 158
time 22 (13, 40) 22 (13, 40) 22 (13, 40) 22 (13, 40)
n 52 (30, 96) 15 (9, 32) 13 (7, 28) 13 (7, 30)
post_p 0.19 (0.02, 0.44) 0.42 (0.27, 0.49) 0.26 (0.07, 0.43) 0.4 (0.24, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.013 (0.007, 0.022) 0.025 (0.014, 0.051) 0.012 (0, 0.026)
Niraparib count 124 124 124 124
time 18 (13, 37) 18 (13, 37) 18 (13, 37) 18 (13, 37)
n 44 (27, 82) 13 (7, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (7, 22)
post_p 0.21 (0.04, 0.42) 0.26 (0.04, 0.42) 0.42 (0.31, 0.49) 0.41 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.031) 0.025 (0.012, 0.05) 0.014 (0.007, 0.029) 0.013 (0, 0.027)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 362 362 362 362
time 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46)
n 36 (22, 70) 25 (15, 57) 11 (6, 23) 11 (6, 24)
post_p 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.24 (0.05, 0.45) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.31 (0.07, 0.47)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.018, 0.034) 0.025 (0.016, 0.036) 0.026 (0.016, 0.045) 0.024 (0.012, 0.044)
Taxel_therapies count 28 28 28 28
time 18 (15, 33) 18 (15, 33) 18 (15, 33) 18 (15, 33)
n 28 (21, 49) 19 (14, 36) 8 (6, 18) 9 (4, 20)
post_p 0.34 (0.17, 0.44) 0.43 (0.28, 0.48) 0.28 (0.18, 0.46) 0.41 (0.27, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.038) 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.029 (0.019, 0.052) 0.017 (0.01, 0.035)
Niraparib count 35 35 35 35
time 19 (14, 30) 19 (14, 30) 19 (14, 30) 19 (14, 30)
n 32 (23, 44) 23 (15, 33) 9 (5, 14) 8 (5, 15)
post_p 0.28 (0.09, 0.42) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.43 (0.33, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.027 (0.019, 0.035) 0.023 (0.015, 0.035) 0.017 (0.01, 0.033) 0.016 (0, 0.042)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 68 68 68 68
time 28 (23, 44) 28 (23, 44) 28 (23, 44) 28 (23, 44)
n 18 (12, 32) 19 (11, 30) 11 (7, 18) 10 (6, 20)
post_p 0.39 (0.21, 0.48) 0.37 (0.16, 0.48) 0.3 (0.09, 0.46) 0.24 (0.07, 0.41)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.01, 0.027) 0.012 (0.006, 0.019) 0.029 (0.017, 0.053) 0.026 (0.016, 0.045)
Taxel_therapies count 64 64 64 64
time 30 (22, 46) 30 (22, 46) 30 (22, 46) 30 (22, 46)
n 16 (9, 30) 16 (7, 33) 16 (9, 26) 15 (8, 23)
post_p 0.22 (0.05, 0.4) 0.36 (0.22, 0.48) 0.29 (0.13, 0.47) 0.43 (0.33, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.015, 0.039) 0.014 (0.008, 0.024) 0.027 (0.019, 0.037) 0.015 (0.01, 0.023)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 176 176 176 176
time 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53)
n 19 (11, 38) 25 (15, 49) 17 (10, 34) 11 (6, 24)
post_p 0.41 (0.26, 0.49) 0.2 (0.03, 0.45) 0.38 (0.21, 0.49) 0.24 (0.04, 0.45)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.009, 0.022) 0.025 (0.018, 0.036) 0.012 (0.007, 0.02) 0.026 (0.015, 0.047)
Taxel_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 22 (19, 44) 22 (19, 44) 22 (19, 44) 22 (19, 44)
n 16 (13, 18) 26 (20, 44) 10 (7, 12) 14 (7, 25)
post_p 0.4 (0.31, 0.47) 0.36 (0.26, 0.38) 0.44 (0.29, 0.48) 0.38 (0.28, 0.4)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.016) 0.017 (0.016, 0.02) 0.009 (0.007, 0.026) 0.015 (0.011, 0.042)
Niraparib count 107 107 107 107
time 25 (18, 38) 25 (18, 38) 25 (18, 38) 25 (18, 38)
n 17 (10, 26) 25 (18, 48) 14 (8, 26) 11 (7, 21)
post_p 0.21 (0.04, 0.45) 0.26 (0.06, 0.47) 0.38 (0.2, 0.49) 0.42 (0.24, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.012, 0.039) 0.024 (0.017, 0.034) 0.014 (0.008, 0.022) 0.017 (0.008, 0.033)